Track capital rotation between asset classes and market regimes
What to watch next: Credit reversal. HYG/LQD turn-up would signal relief; further breakdown would confirm risk-off.
Early warning pairs (HYG/LQD, RUT/SPX, XLY/XLP) lead turning points. Macro cycle (Gold/Copper, TLT/SPX) and equity leadership (NDX/SPX, SMH) complete the picture. Confirmation pairs (GOLD/SPX, VIX/SPX) do not lead — they confirm.
Updated 2/23/2026, 12:03:30 AM
High Yield / Investment Grade credit. Leads everything — credit markets price default risk before equities. Rolled over before 2007, 2018, 2020, 2022 tops. If this breaks down, equities usually follow.